Vor die Lage kommen - Simulation sektorübergreifender Kaskadeneffekte im Krisenfall

Get ahead of the situation: Simulation of cross-sectoral cascading effects during a crisis

In recent years, the frequency and severity of extreme weather events has been steadily increasing. Due to the often-exposed location of critical infrastructures, extreme weather events pose a serious threat to them. As supply networks become increasingly interconnected with multiple critical infrastructures, the occurrence of cascading effects does not only lead to further failures within a specific sector but can introduce severe consequences to adjacent sectors as well. In parallel, critical infrastructures must be regarded as socio-technical systems which not only supply people but are also operated by people. During stressful situations like extreme weather events, it is therefore mandatory to obtain a comprehensive assessment for enabling quick and coordinated countermeasures to minimize damage to critical infrastructure, establish a rapid emergency supply and prepare for reconstruction. This paper presents a concept to reproduce cross-sectoral cascading effects through coupled simulations of individual supply networks. The results of the individual simulations of the different sectors are bundled and interlinked in an overall platform able to trigger subsequent simulations. To represent both anticipated and unforeseen cascading effects, the interfaces between the simulations must be carefully defined and implemented. The results of the overall platform will be incorporated into a demonstrator that will provide a training environment for emergency forces and network operators in which communication during the crisis can be practiced, security measures can be pre-thought, and vulnerable nodes can be identified.